Peter Zeihan's argument seems to assume a case where deglobalization proceeds smoothly. In particular, I fully agree that population growth will occur. However, I feel that this deglobalization cannot be a long-term sustainable direction. It is expected that the US de-globalization policy will show a trend that seems to be successful in the short term, but it is not expected to succeed in the long term. The reason is as follows.
First, because the deglobalization chosen by the US is a choice that creates a flow in the opposite direction of the 'principle of optimal efficiency' among the five major orders of organism evolution.
Second, deglobalization is a strategy to maintain the US' position as G1, but according to the 'principle of instability', this strategy is expected to result in an increase in the possibility of accelerating the emergence of a new system.
Third, the deglobalization strategy is expected to accelerate the aging of the United States and the global society because it is expected to strengthen 'excessive energy accumulation' and 'accelerate the deepening rate of imbalance in energy distribution' according to the 'principle of aging'.
The U.S. policy of deglobalization seems highly likely to be a choice that will result in hastening the destruction of the global society in the long run. The recent global society has already reached a state of being united economically, socially, and culturally, and only politically has been in the state of a Hydra society. However, deglobalization is an attempt to re-bloc an organized economy, and it is highly likely to result in extremely high instability of the global society.
Since the development of SNS is creating a state in which global organic metacognition is possible, deglobalization, a flow led by selfish genes, seems highly likely to face global resistance in the long run.
The 6 main orders of evolution of organisms that I have organized in my own way through research in anthropology and biology are as follows.
1. The Principle of Optimal Efficiency
The direction of evolution toward a higher life was to minimize the moment (force to rotate around a point) generated in the body during energy acquisition activities. This can be expressed as the direction of pursuing optimal efficiency for energy acquisition/consumption. Animals that walk have been optimized in the direction of upright, and animals that fly or swim in the streamlined direction. Here, 'pursuit' does not mean pursuit as a direct will. Looking back at the results of interactions between natural selection and rare leaps (mutations), a tendency that can be interpreted as 'pursuit' is observed.
2. The Principle of Instability
Instability is the driving force behind the evolution of life and social organisms (organizations, states, etc.). Ilya Prigogine, Nobel laureate in chemistry, said, “Irreversibility leads to instability, instability begets self-organization, and self-organization gives rise to life.” In the same principle, desire (irreversibility) causes confusion (instability), confusion (instability) gives birth to the will to change (self-organization), and the will to change (self-organization) has conceived a new society (life).
3. The Principle of Aging
'Excessive energy accumulation' and 'speed of deepening energy distribution imbalance' are the speed of aging of individual lives or individual social organisms. As Harvard University biologist Bernd Heinrich puts it, "Eating extra calories means growing faster, maturing faster, and thus living a shorter lifespan."
4. The principle of Imitation
The structure of human society has evolved in the direction of more sophisticated imitation of the human body and mind (brain) and will continue to do so! Socio-structural evolution is human's particle avatarization, and metaverse can be seen as wave avatarization.
5. The Principle of Metacognition
All living beings walk the path of optimal efficiency in their own way. However, the path can be classified into two paths. The first way is to conform to the will (survival and reproduction) of the selfish genes (blueprints). The second way is to go beyond the will of this gene through metacognition. This is a violation of the 2nd law of thermodynamics. Socrates' words "Know thyself!" can be seen as the official starting point of metacognition and social evolution.
6. The principle of connection
Humanity has been connected in proportion to the development of means of transportation and communication. As transportation and communication have developed, the scope of the 'social We' in human society has expanded and connectivity has deepened. Will continue to do so!
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